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research article

A Quickest Detection Problem With An Observation Cost

Dalang, Robert C.  
•
Shiryaev, Albert N.
2015
Annals Of Applied Probability

In the classical quickest detection problem, one must detect as quickly as possible when a Brownian motion without drift "changes" into a Brownian motion with positive drift. The change occurs at an unknown "disorder" time with exponential distribution. There is a penalty for declaring too early that the change has occurred, and a cost for late detection proportional to the time between occurrence of the change and the time when the change is declared. Here, we consider the case where there is also a cost for observing the process. This stochastic control problem can be formulated using either the notion of strong solution or of weak solution of the s.d.e. that defines the observation process. We show that the value function is the same in both cases, even though no optimal strategy exists in the strong formulation. We determine the optimal strategy in the weak formulation and show, using a form of the "principle of smooth fit" and under natural hypotheses on the parameters of the problem, that the optimal strategy takes the form of a two-threshold policy: observe only when the posterior probability that the change has already occurred, given the observations, is larger than a threshold A >= 0, and declare that the disorder time has occurred when this posterior probability exceeds a threshold B >= A. The constants A and B are determined explicitly from the parameters of the problem.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1214/14-Aap1028
Web of Science ID

WOS:000353527000011

Author(s)
Dalang, Robert C.  
Shiryaev, Albert N.
Date Issued

2015

Publisher

Inst Mathematical Statistics

Published in
Annals Of Applied Probability
Volume

25

Issue

3

Start page

1475

End page

1512

Subjects

Quickest detection

•

stochastic control

•

disorder problem

•

free boundary problem

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
PROB  
Available on Infoscience
May 29, 2015
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/114155
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