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research article

Bridging asymptotic independence and dependence in spatial extremes using Gaussian scale mixtures

Huser, Raphael  
•
Opitz, Thomas
•
Thibaud, Emeric  
2017
Spatial Statistics

Gaussian scale mixtures are constructed as Gaussian processes with a random variance. They have non-Gaussian marginals and can exhibit asymptotic dependence unlike Gaussian processes, which are asymptotically independent except in the case of perfect dependence. In this paper, we study the extremal dependence properties of Gaussian scale mixtures and we unify and extend general results on their joint tail decay rates in both asymptotic dependence and independence cases. Motivated by the analysis of spatial extremes, we propose flexible yet parsimonious parametric copula models that smoothly interpolate from asymptotic dependence to independence and include the Gaussian dependence as a special case. We show how these new models can be fitted to high threshold exceedances using a censored likelihood approach, and we demonstrate that they provide valuable information about tail characteristics. In particular, by borrowing strength across locations, our parametric model-based approach can also be used to provide evidence for or against either asymptotic dependence class, hence complementing information given at an exploratory stage by the widely used nonparametric or parametric estimates of the x and (x) over bar coefficients. We demonstrate the capacity of our methodology by adequately capturing the extremal properties of wind speed data collected in the Pacific Northwest, US. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1016/j.spasta.2017.06.004
Web of Science ID

WOS:000410648800010

Author(s)
Huser, Raphael  
Opitz, Thomas
Thibaud, Emeric  
Date Issued

2017

Publisher

Elsevier Sci Ltd

Published in
Spatial Statistics
Volume

21

Start page

166

End page

186

Subjects

Asymptotic dependence and independence

•

Censored likelihood inference

•

Spatial copula

•

Extreme event

•

Random scale model

•

Threshold exceedance

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
STAT  
Available on Infoscience
November 8, 2017
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/141846
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