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research article

Bayesian demand calibration for dynamic traffic simulations

Flötteröd, Gunnar  
•
Bierlaire, Michel  
•
Nagel, Kai
2011
Transportation Science

We present an operational framework for the calibration of demand models for dynamic traffic simulations, where calibration refers to the estimation of a structurally predefined model's parameters from real data. Our focus is on disaggregate simulators that represent every traveler individually. We calibrate, also at an individual level, arbitrary choice dimensions within a Bayesian framework, where the analyst's prior knowledge is represented by the dynamic traffic simulator itself and the measurements are comprised of time-dependent traffic counts. The approach is equally applicable to an equilibrium-based planning model and to a telematics model of spontaneous and imperfectly informed drivers. It is based on consistent mathematical arguments, yet it is applicable in a purely simulation-based environment and, as our experimental results show, is capable of handling large scenarios.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1287/trsc.1100.0367
Web of Science ID

WOS:000297208700006

Author(s)
Flötteröd, Gunnar  
Bierlaire, Michel  
Nagel, Kai
Date Issued

2011

Published in
Transportation Science
Volume

45

Issue

4

Start page

541

End page

561

Subjects

disaggregate demand calibration

•

dynamic traffic assignment

•

microsimulation

•

path flow estimation

•

Bayesian estimation

•

Origin-Destination Matrices

•

Generalized Least-Squares

•

Path Flow Estimator

•

Day-To-Day

•

Trip Matrices

•

Programming Approach

•

Congested Networks

•

Link Volumes

•

Counts

•

Model

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
TRANSP-OR  
Available on Infoscience
February 7, 2011
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/64034
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