Repository logo

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
  1. Home
  2. Academic and Research Output
  3. Journal articles
  4. Can one hear the shape of a target zone?
 
research article

Can one hear the shape of a target zone?

Arcand, Jean-Louis
•
Kumar, Shekhar Hari
•
Hongler, Max-Olivier  
Show more
2023
Journal of Mathematical Economics

We develop an exchange rate target zone model with finite exit time and non-Gaussian tails. We show how the tails are a consequence of time-varying investor risk aversion, which generates mean-preserving spreads in the fundamental distribution. We solve explicitly for stationary and non- stationary exchange rate paths, and show how both depend continuously on the distance to the exit time and the target zone bands. This enables us to show how central bank intervention is endogenous to both the distance of the fundamental to the band and the underlying risk. We discuss how the feasibility of the target zone is shaped by the set horizon and the degree of underlying risk, and we determine a minimum time at which the required parity can be reached. We prove that increases in risk beyond a certain threshold can yield endogenous regime shifts where the ‘‘honeymoon effects’’ vanish and the target zone cannot be feasibly maintained. None of these results can be obtained by means of the standard Gaussian or affine models. Numerical simulations allow us to recover all the exchange rate densities established in the target zone literature. The generality of our framework has important policy implications for modern target zone arrangements.

  • Files
  • Details
  • Metrics
Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Name

1-s2.0-S0304406823000459-main.pdf

Type

Publisher

Version

http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85

Access type

openaccess

License Condition

CC BY

Size

1.93 MB

Format

Adobe PDF

Checksum (MD5)

82a50d8cb7029211f41aeeade79c1141

Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne
  • Contact
  • infoscience@epfl.ch

  • Follow us on Facebook
  • Follow us on Instagram
  • Follow us on LinkedIn
  • Follow us on X
  • Follow us on Youtube
AccessibilityLegal noticePrivacy policyCookie settingsEnd User AgreementGet helpFeedback

Infoscience is a service managed and provided by the Library and IT Services of EPFL. © EPFL, tous droits réservés