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research article

Fitting Markovian binary trees using global and individual demographic data

Hautphenne, Sophie  
•
Massaro, Melanie
•
Turner, Katharine  
August 1, 2019
Theoretical Population Biology

We consider a class of continuous-time branching processes called Markovian binary trees (MBTs), in which the individuals lifetime and reproduction epochs are modelled using a transient Markovian arrival process (TMAP). We develop methods for estimating the parameters of the TMAP by using either age-specific averages of reproduction and mortality rates, or age-specific individual demographic data. Depending on the degree of detail of the available information, we follow a weighted non-linear regression or a maximum likelihood approach. We discuss several criteria to determine the optimal number of states in the underlying TMAP. Our results improve the fit of an existing MBT model for human demography, and provide insights for the future conservation management of the threatened Chatham Island black robin population. (C) 2019 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1016/j.tpb.2019.04.007
Web of Science ID

WOS:000477690900004

Author(s)
Hautphenne, Sophie  
Massaro, Melanie
Turner, Katharine  
Date Issued

2019-08-01

Publisher

ACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCE

Published in
Theoretical Population Biology
Volume

128

Start page

39

End page

50

Subjects

Ecology

•

Evolutionary Biology

•

Genetics & Heredity

•

Mathematical & Computational Biology

•

Environmental Sciences & Ecology

•

markov process

•

branching process

•

non-linear regression

•

maximum likelihood

•

petroica traversi

•

death

•

models

•

bird

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
STAT  
SMAT  
Available on Infoscience
August 8, 2019
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/159625
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