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  4. Causal Discovery in Multivariate Extremes: A Study of Swiss Hydrological Catchments
 
research article

Causal Discovery in Multivariate Extremes: A Study of Swiss Hydrological Catchments

Mhalla, L.  
•
Chavez‐Demoulin, V.
•
Naveau, P.
August 25, 2025
Environmetrics

Causally‐induced asymmetry reflects the principle that an event qualifies as a cause only if its absence would prevent the occurrence of the effect. Thus, uncovering causal effects becomes a matter of comparing a well‐defined score in both directions. Motivated by studying causal effects at extreme levels of a multivariate random vector, we propose to construct a model‐agnostic causal score relying solely on the assumption of the existence of a max‐domain of attraction. Based on a representation of a generalised Pareto random vector, we construct the causal score as the Wasserstein distance between the margins and a well‐specified random variable. The proposed methodology is illustrated on a simulated dataset of different characteristics of catchments in Switzerland: discharge, precipitation, snowmelt, temperature, and evapotranspiration.

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10.1002_env.70034.pdf

Type

Main Document

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Published version

Access type

openaccess

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CC BY

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4.67 MB

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Adobe PDF

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d8b74b6b395b775a78fb6c8852f64ba7

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