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research article

Real-time estimates of Swiss electricity savings using streamed smart meter data

Mari, Alessandro
•
Remlinger, Carl  
•
Castello, Roberto  
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January 1, 2025
Applied Energy

The gas crisis of 2022 put pressure on electricity prices in Europe, prompting the Swiss government to launch a national energy-saving campaign. To effectively quantify potential savings and guide timely decision-making, this campaign called for rigorous near-real-time modeling of changes in electricity consumption habits. The proposed approach estimates national electricity consumption at an hourly resolution across three consumer categories using thousands of streamed smart-meter load curves. These curves are aggregated to produce a national consumption estimate using scaling factors that account for differences among Swiss distributors. These factors are derived by regressing historical annual consumption against public socio-economic variables. The obtained national load curve is adjusted for the influence of weather conditions, the calendar and global trends, in order to compare different periods with a reference scenario. Such external effects are modeled with splines using Generalized Additive Models, trained on a 5-year dataset, to precisely measure each contribution on the national consumption and evaluate the consumers’ response to the saving plan. The results indicate a reduction of approximately 4.8% of the adjusted electricity consumption during winter 2022–2023, equivalent to an average monthly savings of 246 GWh, distributed across residential, service, and industrial sectors.

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Name

10.1016_j.apenergy.2024.124537.pdf

Type

Main Document

Version

Published version

Access type

openaccess

License Condition

CC BY

Size

1.43 MB

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Adobe PDF

Checksum (MD5)

d696450b5777fed76e5cee3b59d1ae57

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