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research article

Real-time estimates of Swiss electricity savings using streamed smart meter data

Mari, Alessandro
•
Remlinger, Carl  
•
Castello, Roberto  
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January 1, 2025
Applied Energy

The gas crisis of 2022 put pressure on electricity prices in Europe, prompting the Swiss government to launch a national energy-saving campaign. To effectively quantify potential savings and guide timely decision-making, this campaign called for rigorous near-real-time modeling of changes in electricity consumption habits. The proposed approach estimates national electricity consumption at an hourly resolution across three consumer categories using thousands of streamed smart-meter load curves. These curves are aggregated to produce a national consumption estimate using scaling factors that account for differences among Swiss distributors. These factors are derived by regressing historical annual consumption against public socio-economic variables. The obtained national load curve is adjusted for the influence of weather conditions, the calendar and global trends, in order to compare different periods with a reference scenario. Such external effects are modeled with splines using Generalized Additive Models, trained on a 5-year dataset, to precisely measure each contribution on the national consumption and evaluate the consumers’ response to the saving plan. The results indicate a reduction of approximately 4.8% of the adjusted electricity consumption during winter 2022–2023, equivalent to an average monthly savings of 246 GWh, distributed across residential, service, and industrial sectors.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124537
Scopus ID

2-s2.0-85205908183

Author(s)
Mari, Alessandro
Remlinger, Carl  

EPFL

Castello, Roberto  

EPFL

Galus, Matthias
Obozinski, Guillaume  
Heymann, Fabian  

EPFL

Quarteroni, Silvia  
Date Issued

2025-01-01

Published in
Applied Energy
Volume

377

Issue

Part C

Article Number

124537

Subjects

Energy policy

•

Energy saving

•

Generalised additive models

•

Smart meters

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
SDSC  
SDSC-GE  
Available on Infoscience
October 22, 2024
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/241692
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