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  4. Large scale extreme risk assessment using copulas: an application to drought events under climate change for Austria
 
research article

Large scale extreme risk assessment using copulas: an application to drought events under climate change for Austria

Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan
•
Balkovic, Juraj
•
Silm, Kadri
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October 1, 2019
Computational Management Science

Droughts pose a significant challenge to farmers, insurers as well as governments around the world and the situation is expected to worsen in the future due to climate change. We present a large scale drought risk assessment approach that can be used for current and future risk management purposes. Our suggested methodology is a combination of a large scale agricultural computational modelling -, extreme value-, as well as copula approach to upscale local crop yield risks to the national scale. We show that combining regional probabilistic estimates will significantly underestimate losses if the dependencies between regions during drought events are not taken explicitly into account. Among the many ways to use these results it is shown how it enables the assessment of current and future costs of subsidized drought insurance in Austria.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1007/s10287-018-0339-4
Web of Science ID

WOS:000514627500006

Author(s)
Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan
Balkovic, Juraj
Silm, Kadri
Timonina-Farkas, Anna  
Date Issued

2019-10-01

Publisher

SPRINGER HEIDELBERG

Published in
Computational Management Science
Volume

16

Issue

4

Start page

651

End page

669

Subjects

Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods

•

Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences

•

disaster-risk

•

impacts

•

model

•

adaptation

•

dynamics

•

stress

•

yield

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
TOM  
Available on Infoscience
March 3, 2020
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/166798
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