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  4. A System Dynamics Assessment of the Supply of Superalloys using WORLD6; Sufficiency for Civilian and Military Aviation Needs
 
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A System Dynamics Assessment of the Supply of Superalloys using WORLD6; Sufficiency for Civilian and Military Aviation Needs

Sverdrup, Harald Ulrik
•
Olafsdottir, Anna Hulda
•
Schlyter, Peter
Ludwig, Christian  
•
Valdivia, Sonia
March 3, 2019
Progress towards the resource revolution

The extraction, supply, market price and recycling of the metals used for superalloys were modelled using the systems dynamics model WORLD6. Peak production per capita (Supply Security) and stock-in-use per capita (Utility of Use) as well as resource stock lifetime during self-supply (Resilience) are key indicators. The resource estimates made resulted in significantly larger estimates than previous studies for nickel, tantalum, niobium, wolfram, molybdenum, cobalt, rhenium, titanium, zirconium and hafnium. The study shows that while for some elements (Co, Nb, Ta, W, Ni, Re), the size of the extractable resource may pose a challenge. For other elements, the intricacies and interdependencies of production will provide challenging limitations (Co, Re, Hf). Resource stocks of key metals are asymmetrically distributed among the larger powers and their dependants, posing strategic challenges for the future. Future patterns of scarcity, in space and time, of key resources may jeopardize strategic supply advantages presently enjoyed by major state actors. On the global scale, many of the key metals will run into hard scarcity around 2080-2100 AD, where the amounts demanded simply cannot be delivered. The recycling rates are too low for some of the key metals used in superalloys. This is contributing to shorter society service time that what could have been achieved otherwise. Both market mechanisms and other incentives through governance can be used for getting a better recycling of the important metals. Without these metals, several technologies will become difficult to produce, with serious implications for both military and civilian uses of high performance hardware. Additionally, increased competition between various technology sectors, e.g. aerospace, energy production and the IT-sectors.

  • Details
  • Metrics
Type
book part or chapter
Author(s)
Sverdrup, Harald Ulrik
Olafsdottir, Anna Hulda
Schlyter, Peter
Editors
Ludwig, Christian  
•
Valdivia, Sonia
Date Issued

2019-03-03

Publisher

Paul Scherrer Institute, World Resources Forum

Published in
Progress towards the resource revolution
ISBN of the book

978-3-9521409-8-7

Total of pages

90-96

Book part title

Methods, Indicators, and Design for Resource Efficiency and Sufficiency

Start page

236

Subjects

Aerospace

•

Turbines

•

WORLD6 Model

•

Superalloys

•

Energy Production

URL
https://www.wrforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/WRF_2019_book_FINAL.pdf
Written at

EPFL

RelationURL/DOI

IsPartOf

https://infoscience.epfl.ch/record/265537
Available on Infoscience
February 12, 2024
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/203600
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