Repository logo

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
  1. Home
  2. Academic and Research Output
  3. Journal articles
  4. Blackouts risk evaluation by Monte Carlo Simulation regarding cascading outages and system frequency deviation
 
research article

Blackouts risk evaluation by Monte Carlo Simulation regarding cascading outages and system frequency deviation

Mousavi, O. Alizadeh
•
Cherkaoui, R.  
•
Bozorg, M.
2012
Electric Power Systems Research

In this paper, a blackout risk assessment method is proposed considering the effects of cascading outages, the active power and frequency response of the system. Here, the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is used to analyze the risk of blackouts by generating rare event scenarios. In the proposed model the cascading outages are considered as the result of transmission equipments overloading and hidden failure of the protection system, which they can increase the probability of large blackouts. The primary frequency control of the generators and the frequency sensitivity of the loads are also modeled in each step of cascading outages. A DC OPF model is used as the operator remedial action to minimize the lost load. The obtained lost load data are used to calculate Expected Load Not Served (ELNS) and Complementary Cumulative Density Function (CCDF) to analyze the risk of blackout. The CCDF of the lost load data is directly calculated from the lost load data and Gaussian Mixture Method (GMM) is applied to estimate the Probability Distribution Function (PDF) and the smoothed CCDF of the lost load data. Based on the proposed method, the power law distribution of the blackout size is studied by looking at the IEEE 118 bus test case. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  • Details
  • Metrics
Type
research article
DOI
10.1016/j.epsr.2012.03.004
Web of Science ID

WOS:000304787300018

Author(s)
Mousavi, O. Alizadeh
Cherkaoui, R.  
Bozorg, M.
Date Issued

2012

Publisher

Elsevier

Published in
Electric Power Systems Research
Volume

89

Start page

157

End page

164

Subjects

Monte Carlo Simulation

•

Gaussian Mixture Method

•

Dc Opf

•

Cascading outages

•

Power law distribution

•

Grid Blackouts

•

Model

•

Criticality

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
DESL  
Available on Infoscience
June 29, 2012
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/82480
Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne
  • Contact
  • infoscience@epfl.ch

  • Follow us on Facebook
  • Follow us on Instagram
  • Follow us on LinkedIn
  • Follow us on X
  • Follow us on Youtube
AccessibilityLegal noticePrivacy policyCookie settingsEnd User AgreementGet helpFeedback

Infoscience is a service managed and provided by the Library and IT Services of EPFL. © EPFL, tous droits réservés