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  4. Random Forest Models for Identifying Motorway Rear-End Crash Risks Using Disaggregate Traffic Data and Meteorological Information
 
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conference paper

Random Forest Models for Identifying Motorway Rear-End Crash Risks Using Disaggregate Traffic Data and Meteorological Information

Pham, Minh-Hai  
•
Bhaskar, Ashish  
•
Chung, Edward
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2010
13th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems
13th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems

This paper presents an approach to develop motorway Rear-End Crash Risk Identification Models (RECRIM) using disaggregate traffic data, meteorological data and crash database for a study site at a two-lane-per-direction section on Swiss right-hand driving motorway A1. Traffic data collected from inductive double loop detectors provide instant vehicle information such as speed, time headway, etc. We define traffic situations (TSs) characterized by 22 variables representing traffic status for 5-minute intervals. Our goal is to develop models that can separate TSs under normal conditions and TSs under traffic conditions preceding rear-end crashes using Random Forest encapsulated in TreeBagger class developed in MatLab by The MathWorks ([1]). Normal TSs for the whole year of 2005 were clustered to form groups of similar normal TSs that we call traffic regimes (TRs). Pre-crash TSs are classified into TRs so that a RECRIM for each TR is developed. Interpreting results of high performance models suggests that speed variance on the right lane and speed difference between two lanes are the two main causes of the rear-end crashes. In this paper, we also discuss about the applicability of RECRIM in a real-time framework. [1] Mathworks, T. Regression and Classification by Bagging Decision Trees. Volume, http://www.mathworks.com/access/helpdesk/help/toolbox/stats /br0gosr-1.html, Jan 22, 2010

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Type
conference paper
DOI
10.1109/ITSC.2010.5625003
Author(s)
Pham, Minh-Hai  
•
Bhaskar, Ashish  
•
Chung, Edward
•
Dumont, André-Gilles  
Date Issued

2010

Published in
13th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems
Start page

468

End page

473

Subjects

Reliability and Safety

•

Traffic Control

•

Data Mining and Analysis

Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
LAVOC  
NEARCTIS
Event nameEvent placeEvent date
13th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems

Madeira Island, Portugal

19 – 22 September 2010

Available on Infoscience
July 2, 2010
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/51458
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