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research article

BAYESIAN MODELING OF INSURANCE CLAIMS FOR HAIL DAMAGE

Miralles, Ophélia
•
Davison, Anthony C.  
December 1, 2024
Annals of Applied Statistics

Despite its importance for insurance, there is almost no literature on statistical hail damage modeling. Statistical models for hailstorms exist, though they are generally not open-source, but no study appears to have developed a stochastic hail impact function. In this paper we use hail-related insurance claim data to build a Gaussian line process with extreme marks in order to model both the geographical footprint of a hailstorm and the damage to buildings that hailstones can cause. We build a model for the claim counts and claim values, and compare it to the use of a benchmark deterministic hail impact function. Our model proves to be better than the benchmark at capturing hail spatial patterns and allows for localized and extreme damage, which is seen in the insurance data. The evaluation of both the claim counts and value predictions shows that performance is improved compared to the benchmark, especially for extreme damage. Our model appears to be the first to provide realistic estimates for hail damage to individual buildings.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1214/24-AOAS1925
Scopus ID

2-s2.0-85210803720

Author(s)
Miralles, Ophélia
•
Davison, Anthony C.  
Date Issued

2024-12-01

Published in
Annals of Applied Statistics
Volume

18

Issue

4

Start page

3091

End page

3108

Subjects

Bayesian mod-eling

•

Climate extremes

•

extreme value analysis

•

hail damage

•

line process

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
STAT  
FunderFunding(s)Grant NumberGrant URL

Swiss National Science Foundation

200021_178824

Available on Infoscience
January 25, 2025
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/244330
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