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research article

Robust aircraft trajectory planning under uncertain convective environments with optimal control and rapidly developing thunderstorms

González-Arribas, Daniel
•
Soler, Manuel
•
Sanjurjo-Rivo, Manuel
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June 2019
Aerospace Science and Technology

Convective weather, and thunderstorm development in particular, represents a major source of disruption, delays and safety hazards in the Air Traffic Management system. Thunderstorms are challenging to forecast and evolve on relatively rapid timescales; therefore, aircraft trajectory planning tools need to consider the uncertainty in the forecasted evolution of these convective phenomena. In this work, we use data from a satellite-based product, Rapidly Developing Thunderstorms, to estimate a model of the uncertain evolution of thunderstorms. We then introduce a methodology based on numerical optimal control to generate avoidance trajectories under uncertain convective weather evolution. We design a randomized procedure to initialize the optimal control problem, explore the different resulting local optima, and identify the best trajectory. Finally, we demonstrate the proposed methodology on a realistic test scenario, employing actual forecast data and an aircraft performance model.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1016/j.ast.2019.03.051
Author(s)
González-Arribas, Daniel
Soler, Manuel
Sanjurjo-Rivo, Manuel
Kamgarpour, Maryam  
Simarro, Juan
Date Issued

2019-06

Published in
Aerospace Science and Technology
Volume

89

Start page

445

End page

459

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

OTHER

EPFL units
SYCAMORE  
Available on Infoscience
December 1, 2021
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/183330
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