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  4. A hybrid travel time prediction framework for planned motorway roadworks
 
conference paper

A hybrid travel time prediction framework for planned motorway roadworks

Calvert, Simeon Craig
•
van Lint, Hans
•
Hoogendoorn, Serge
2010
13th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems
13th International IEEE Annual Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems

In this paper we propose a hybrid motorway travel time prediction framework aimed at providing pre-trip travel information in case of roadworks. The framework utilises a first order macroscopic traffic flow model to predict the consequences in travel time of changes in both traffic demand and roadway capacity. Data-driven approaches are used to estimate both demand and capacity. From a large database of detailed loop detection data the most likely demand profiles are estimated for the considered workzone location, taking into account the possible effects of mobility management. Capacity estimation techniques are employed which combine historical data with likely capacity reduction factors as a consequence of the roadworks. On the basis of evaluation on a workzone case on a densely used 20 km stretch of a three lane motorway in The Netherlands, it is demonstrated that the proposed approach is able to predict travel time within a 20% margin in over 96% of all cases. The proposed approach is suitable for trip planning purposes (e.g. route planners and travel information websites), and may also be utilised by the road authorities in the actual planning of the roadworks.

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Type
conference paper
DOI
10.1109/ITSC.2010.5625150
Author(s)
Calvert, Simeon Craig
van Lint, Hans
Hoogendoorn, Serge
Date Issued

2010

Published in
13th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems
Start page

1770

End page

1776

Subjects

TUD

Editorial or Peer reviewed

NON-REVIEWED

Written at

OTHER

EPFL units
NEARCTIS
Event nameEvent placeEvent date
13th International IEEE Annual Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems

Madeira Island, Portugal

September 19-22, 2010

Available on Infoscience
November 24, 2010
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/58297
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