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  4. Cloud Motion Identification Algorithms Based on All-Sky Images to Support Solar Irradiance Forecast
 
conference paper

Cloud Motion Identification Algorithms Based on All-Sky Images to Support Solar Irradiance Forecast

Magnone, Lydie  
•
Sossan, Fabrizio  
•
Scolari, Enrica  
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2017
2017 IEEE 44th Photovoltaic Specialist Conference (PVSC)
Photovoltaic Specialists Conference

Cloud motion is a cause of direct irradiance variations at ground level and determines significant fluctuations of PV generation. In this work, we investigate on how integrating information on clouds motion extracted from all-sky images into a time series-based forecasting tool for global horizontal irradiance (GHI) to enhance its prediction performance. We consider three different cloud motion algorithms: heuristic motion detection (HMD), particle image velocimetry (PIV), and a persistent model. The HMD method is originally proposed in this paper. It consists in choosing the cloud motion vector leading to the best cloud map prediction considering the most recent sky images. Results show that integrating the information of the predicted cloud coverage in the circumsolar area leads to a decrease of the width of the GHI prediction intervals up to 2% for prediction horizons in the range 1 to 10 minutes.

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Type
conference paper
DOI
10.1109/PVSC.2017.8366102
Author(s)
Magnone, Lydie  
Sossan, Fabrizio  
Scolari, Enrica  
Paolone, Mario  
Date Issued

2017

Published in
2017 IEEE 44th Photovoltaic Specialist Conference (PVSC)
Start page

1415

End page

1420

Editorial or Peer reviewed

NON-REVIEWED

Written at

OTHER

EPFL units
DESL  
Event nameEvent placeEvent date
Photovoltaic Specialists Conference

Washington DC

June 25-30 2017

Available on Infoscience
June 12, 2017
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/138229
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