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research article

Improved Inference On Risk Measures For Univariate Extremes

Belzile, Leo R.  
•
Davison, Anthony C.  
September 1, 2022
Annals Of Applied Statistics

We discuss the use of likelihood asymptotics for inference on risk measures in univariate extreme value problems, focusing on estimation of high quantiles and similar summaries of risk for uncertainty quantification. We study whether higher-order approximation, based on the tangent exponential model, can provide improved inferences. We conclude that inference based on maxima is generally robust to mild model misspecification and that profile likelihood-based confidence intervals will often be adequate, whereas inferences based on threshold exceedances can be badly biased but may be improved by higher-order methods, at least for moderate sample sizes. We use the methods to shed light on catastrophic rainfall in Venezuela, flooding in Venice, and the lifetimes of Italian semisupercentenarians.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1214/21-AOAS1555
Web of Science ID

WOS:000828472200014

Author(s)
Belzile, Leo R.  
Davison, Anthony C.  
Date Issued

2022-09-01

Publisher

INST MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS-IMS

Published in
Annals Of Applied Statistics
Volume

16

Issue

3

Start page

1524

End page

1549

Subjects

Statistics & Probability

•

Mathematics

•

extreme value distribution

•

generalized pareto distribution

•

higher-order asymptotic inference

•

poisson process

•

tangent exponential model

•

profile likelihood

•

maximum-likelihood estimators

•

bias reduction

•

parameters

•

posterior

•

bayes

•

tail

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
STAT  
Available on Infoscience
August 15, 2022
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/189986
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