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research article

Critical dynamics in population vaccinating behavior

Pananos, A. Demetri
•
Bury, Thomas M.
•
Wang, Clara
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2017
Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America (PNAS)

Vaccine refusal can lead to renewed outbreaks of previously eliminated diseases and even delay global eradication. Vaccinating decisions exemplify a complex, coupled system where vaccinating behavior and disease dynamics influence one another. Such systems often exhibit critical phenomena-special dynamics close to a tipping point leading to a new dynamical regime. For instance, critical slowing down (declining rate of recovery from small perturbations) may emerge as a tipping point is approached. Here, we collected and geocoded tweets about measles-mumps-rubella vaccine and classified their sentiment using machine-learning algorithms. We also extracted data on measles-related Google searches. We find critical slowing down in the data at the level of California and the United States in the years before and after the 2014-2015 Disneyland, California measles outbreak. Critical slowing down starts growing appreciably several years before the Disneyland outbreak as vaccine uptake declines and the population approaches the tipping point. However, due to the adaptive nature of coupled behavior-disease systems, the population responds to the outbreak by moving away from the tipping point, causing "critical speeding up" whereby resilience to perturbations increases. A mathematical model of measles transmission and vaccine sentiment predicts the same qualitative patterns in the neighborhood of a tipping point to greatly reduced vaccine uptake and large epidemics. These results support the hypothesis that population vaccinating behavior near the disease elimination threshold is a critical phenomenon. Developing new analytical tools to detect these patterns in digital social data might help us identify populations at heightened risk of widespread vaccine refusal.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1073/pnas.1704093114
Web of Science ID

WOS:000418722400065

Author(s)
Pananos, A. Demetri
Bury, Thomas M.
Wang, Clara
Schonfeld, Justin
Mohanty, Sharada P.
Nyhan, Brendan
Salathe, Marcel
Bauch, Chris T.
Date Issued

2017

Publisher

National Academy of Sciences

Published in
Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America (PNAS)
Volume

114

Issue

52

Start page

13762

End page

13767

Subjects

socioecological systems

•

machine learning

•

early warning signals

•

online social media

•

vaccine refusal

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
UPSALATHE1  
Available on Infoscience
January 15, 2018
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/144020
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