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research article

A multimodel analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges

van de Ven, Dirk-Jan
•
Mittal, Shivika
•
Gambhir, Ajay
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2023
Nature Climate Change

The COP26 Glasgow process resulted in many countries strengthening their 2030 emissions reduction targets and announcing net-zero pledges for 2050–2070 but it is not clear how this would impact future warming. Here, we use four diverse integrated assessment models (IAMs) to assess CO2 emission trajectories in the near- and long-term on the basis of national policies and pledges, combined with a non-CO2 infilling model and a simple climate model to assess the temperature implications. We also consider the feasibility of national long-term pledges towards net-zero. While near-term pledges alone lead to warming above 2 °C, the addition of long-term pledges leads to emissions trajectories compatible with a future well below 2 °C, across all four IAMs. However, while IAM heterogeneity translates to diverse decarbonization pathways towards long-term targets, all modelled pathways indicate several feasibility concerns, relating to the cost of mitigation and the rates and scales of deployed technologies and measures.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1038/s41558-023-01661-0
Author(s)
van de Ven, Dirk-Jan
Mittal, Shivika
Gambhir, Ajay
Lamboll, Robin D.
Doukas, Haris
Giarola, Sara
Hawkes, Adam
Koasidis, Konstantinos
Köberle, Alexandre C.
McJeon, Haewon
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Date Issued

2023

Published in
Nature Climate Change
Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
LEURE  
Available on Infoscience
May 22, 2023
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/197812
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