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research article

Stripping the Discount Curve—A Robust Machine Learning Approach

Filipović, Damir  
•
Pelger, Markus
•
Ye, Ye
December 22, 2025
Management Science

We introduce a robust, flexible, and easy-to-implement method for estimating the yield curve from treasury securities. Our nonparametric method learns the discount curve in a function space that we motivate by economic principles. We show in an extensive empirical study on U.S. Treasury securities that our method strongly dominates all parametric and nonparametric benchmarks. It achieves substantially smaller out-of-sample yield and pricing errors while being robust to outliers and data selection choices. We attribute the superior performance to the optimal trade-off between flexibility and smoothness, which positions our method as the new standard for yield curve estimation. This paper was accepted by Agostino Capponi, finance. Supplemental Material: The data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.01401 .

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1287/mnsc.2023.01401
Author(s)
Filipović, Damir  

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne

Pelger, Markus

National Bureau of Economic Research

Ye, Ye

Stanford University

Date Issued

2025-12-22

Publisher

Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)

Published in
Management Science
Article Number

mnsc.2023.01401

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
CSF  
Available on Infoscience
December 29, 2025
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/257347
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