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research article

Trend estimation and short-term forecasting of COVID-19 cases and deaths worldwide

Krymova, Ekaterina  
•
Bejar, Benjamin  
•
Thanou, Dorina  
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August 9, 2022
Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America (PNAS)

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, many dashboards have emerged as useful tools to monitor its evolution, inform the public, and assist governments in decision-making. Here, we present a globally applicable method, integrated in a daily updated dashboard that provides an estimate of the trend in the evolution of the number of cases and deaths from reported data of more than 200 countries and territories, as well as 7-d forecasts. One of the significant difficulties in managing a quickly propagating epidemic is that the details of the dynamic needed to forecast its evolution are obscured by the delays in the identification of cases and deaths and by irregular reporting. Our forecasting methodology substantially relies on estimating the underlying trend in the observed time series using robust seasonal trend decomposition techniques. This allows us to obtain forecasts with simple yet effective extrapolation methods in linear or log scale. We present the results of an assessment of our forecasting methodology and discuss its application to the production of global and regional risk maps.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1073/pnas.2112656119
Web of Science ID

WOS:000931973700005

Author(s)
Krymova, Ekaterina  
Bejar, Benjamin  
Thanou, Dorina  
Sun, Tao
Manetti, Elisa
Lee, Gavin  
Namigai, Kristen
Choirat, Christine  
Flahault, Antoine
Obozinski, Guillaume  
Date Issued

2022-08-09

Publisher

National Academy of Sciences

Published in
Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America (PNAS)
Volume

119

Issue

32

Article Number

e2112656119

Subjects

Multidisciplinary Sciences

•

Science & Technology - Other Topics

•

covid-19

•

forecasting

•

trend estimation

•

seasonal decomposition

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

Available on Infoscience
March 13, 2023
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/195749
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