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research article

Quantifying the information impact of future searches for exoplanetary biosignatures

Balbi, Amedeo
•
Grimaldi, Claudio  
September 1, 2020
Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America (PNAS)

One of the major goals for astronomy in the next decades is the remote search for biosignatures (i.e., the spectroscopic evidence of biological activity) in exoplanets. Here we adopt a Bayesian statistical framework to discuss the implications of such future searches, both in the case when life is detected and when no definite evidence is found. We show that even a single detection of biosignatures in the vicinity of our stellar system, in a survey of similar size to what will be obtainable in the next 2 decades, would affect significantly our prior belief on the frequency of life in the universe, even starting from a neutral or pessimistic stance. In particular, after such discovery, an initially agnostic observer would be led to conclude that there are more than 10(5) inhabited planets in the galaxy with a probability exceeding 95%. However, this conclusion would be somewhat weakened by the viability of transfer of biological material over interstellar distances, as in panspermia scenarios. Conversely, the lack of significant evidence of biosignatures would have little effect, leaving the assessment of the abundance of life in the galaxy still largely undetermined.

  • Details
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Type
research article
DOI
10.1073/pnas.2007560117
Web of Science ID

WOS:000572346700015

Author(s)
Balbi, Amedeo
Grimaldi, Claudio  
Date Issued

2020-09-01

Publisher

National Academy of Sciences

Published in
Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences Of The United States Of America (PNAS)
Volume

117

Issue

35

Start page

21031

End page

21036

Subjects

Multidisciplinary Sciences

•

Science & Technology - Other Topics

•

biosignatures

•

exoplanets

•

bayesian analysis

•

origin of life

•

milky-way

•

star

•

planets

•

life

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
LPM  
Available on Infoscience
October 9, 2020
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/172352
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