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research article

Mean hydrograph event from exact ensemble averages of stochastic trajectories

Calvani, Giulio  
•
Perona, Paolo  
August 6, 2025
Journal of Hydrology

The design of hydraulic structures, flood protection systems, and river management strategies often relies on the peak-flow discharge associated with a specific return period. However, many river processes are related to the shape and duration of the entire flow event. Nevertheless, only a few, mostly empirical, formulations are available in the literature to describe the whole duration of a hydrograph. In this work, a novel framework based on the stochastic Compound Poisson Process approximation of the hydrological regime is proposed, and accordingly, mathematically exact solutions for the duration of the rising and falling limbs of the hydrograph are provided in terms of the initial and peak flow discharges. Then, the proposed relationships are specifically calculated in the case of Nash's hydrograph, and tested against data from rivers with different hydro-morphological characteristics. The framework is readily applicable to model the flow hydrograph in a broad range of time-dependent fluvial processes, including bank erosion, pier scouring, and uprooting of in-channel vegetation, for which an application example is also presented.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133893
Author(s)
Calvani, Giulio  

EPFL

Perona, Paolo  

EPFL

Date Issued

2025-08-06

Publisher

Elsevier BV

Published in
Journal of Hydrology
Volume

662

Article Number

133893

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
PL-LCH  
FunderFunding(s)Grant NumberGrant URL

Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung

200021 212179

RelationRelated workURL/DOI

Splitting probabilities and mean first-passage times across multiple thresholds of jump-and-drift transition paths

https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/200682
Available on Infoscience
August 11, 2025
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/252868
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