Repository logo

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
  1. Home
  2. Academic and Research Output
  3. Journal articles
  4. A robust framework for probabilistic precipitations downscaling from an ensemble of climate predictions applied to Switzerland
 
research article

A robust framework for probabilistic precipitations downscaling from an ensemble of climate predictions applied to Switzerland

Beuchat, X.  
•
Schaefli, B.  
•
Soutter, M.
Show more
2012
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

Rainfall is poorly modeled by general circulation models (GCMs) and requires appropriate downscaling for local-scale hydrological impact studies. Such downscaling methods should be robust and accurate (to handle, e.g., extreme events and uncertainties), but the noncontinuous and highly nonlinear nature of rainfall makes this task particularly challenging. This paper brings together and extends state-of-the-art methods into an integrated and robust probabilistic methodology to downscale local daily rainfall series from an ensemble of climate simulations. The downscaling is based on generalized linear models (GLMs) that relate monthly GCM-scale atmospheric variables to local-scale daily rainfall series. A cross-validation step ensures that the fitted models are correctly conditioned by the climate variables, and a statistical procedure is proposed to test whether the statistical relationships identified for the reference period also hold in a future perturbed climate (i.e., to test the stationarity assumption). Additionally, we propose a strategy to downweigh poorly performing GCM-GLM couples. The methodology is assessed at 27 locations covering Switzerland and is shown to perform well in reproducing historical rainfall statistics including extremes and interannual variability. Furthermore, the projections are consistent with the simulations of physically based dynamical models. Using an original visualization method based on heat maps, we show that although the downscaling models were fitted at each of the 27 sites independently, their projections follow a spatially coherent pattern and that regions exhibiting different climate change impacts can be identified.

  • Details
  • Metrics
Type
research article
DOI
10.1029/2011JD016449
Web of Science ID

WOS:000300231400002

Author(s)
Beuchat, X.  
Schaefli, B.  
Soutter, M.
Mermoud, A.  
Date Issued

2012

Published in
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Volume

117

Issue

D3

Article Number

D03115

Subjects

Generalized Linear-Models

•

Averaging Rea Method

•

Daily Rainfall Data

•

Regional Climate

•

Extreme Precipitation

•

Change Projections

•

Aogcm Simulations

•

Uncertainty Range

•

Weather Generator

•

Bayesian-Analysis

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
ECHO  
Available on Infoscience
March 15, 2012
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/78810
Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne
  • Contact
  • infoscience@epfl.ch

  • Follow us on Facebook
  • Follow us on Instagram
  • Follow us on LinkedIn
  • Follow us on X
  • Follow us on Youtube
AccessibilityLegal noticePrivacy policyCookie settingsEnd User AgreementGet helpFeedback

Infoscience is a service managed and provided by the Library and IT Services of EPFL. © EPFL, tous droits réservés