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  4. Optimization and propagation of uncertainties of a THM numerical model representing a nuclear waste repository concept
 
conference paper

Optimization and propagation of uncertainties of a THM numerical model representing a nuclear waste repository concept

Wojnarowicz, M.  
•
Madaschi, A.
•
Laloui, L.  
2023
Proceedings of the 9ICEG - 9th International Congress on Environmental Geotechnics
9th International Congress on Environmental Geotechnics

Nuclear waste repositories are being considered by many countries to be the best solution to deal with the increasing amount of High-Level Waste (HLW) from nuclear power plant operation and decommissioning. The Swiss repository concept has been assessed since the '90s in Mont Terri Underground Rock Laboratory (URL) via numerous in-situ experiments. Among the different experimentations taking place in the URL, the Full-scale Emplacement (FE) is an in-situ experiment that mimics the construction, backfilling, and early-stage evolution of the repository tunnel. Close and far fields have been extensively instrumented to identify the main repository-induced effects (RIE) associated with the excavation and waste decaying. In this framework, modeling the FE experiment is extremely valuable to scope the main parameters acting on the RIE in a relatively small timeframe. In the present research, we use the FE experiment database to validate a coupled Thermo-HydroMechanical (THM) finite element model of the problem and quantify the inherent uncertainties. To do so, we first performed a sensitivity analysis on the parameter domain to identify the parameters prone to be optimized using a variance-based strategy. Once the main parameters influencing the THM behavior were identified, a Bayesian inference approach was adopted to estimate the modeling uncertainty by comparing the numerical results to the experimental monitoring data. Results showed good agreement with the experimental data for temperature and pore-pressure close field sensors with relatively small model variance and showed the applicability of such a modeling approach for RIE assessment.

  • Details
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Type
conference paper
DOI
10.53243/ICEG2023-441
Scopus ID

2-s2.0-85216776382

Author(s)
Wojnarowicz, M.  

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne

Madaschi, A.

Nesol – Numerical Engineering Solutions Sàrl

Laloui, L.  

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne

Date Issued

2023

Publisher

Argo-E Group

Published in
Proceedings of the 9ICEG - 9th International Congress on Environmental Geotechnics
Series title/Series vol.

Proceedings of the International Congress on Environmental Geotechnics

ISSN (of the series)

3005-7531

Start page

415

End page

425

Subjects

Finite Element Method

•

Geological repository

•

Model calibration

•

Nuclear waste

•

thermo-hydro-mechanical analysis

•

Uncertainty quantification

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
LMS  
Event nameEvent acronymEvent placeEvent date
9th International Congress on Environmental Geotechnics

Chania, Greece

2023-06-25 - 2023-06-28

Available on Infoscience
February 18, 2025
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/247063
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