Repository logo

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
  1. Home
  2. Academic and Research Output
  3. Journal articles
  4. Robust Value at Risk Prediction
 
research article

Robust Value at Risk Prediction

Mancini, Loriano  
•
Trojani, Fabio
2011
Journal Of Financial Econometrics

This paper proposes a robust semiparametric bootstrap method to estimate predictive distributions of GARCH-type models. The method is based on a robust estimation of parametric GARCH models and a robustified resampling scheme for GARCH residuals that controls bootstrap instability due to outlying observations. A Monte Carlo simulation shows that our robust method provides more accurate Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts than classical methods, often by a large extent, especially for several days ahead horizons and/or in presence of outlying observations. An empirical application confirms the simulation results. The robust procedure outperforms in backtesting several other VaR prediction methods, such as RiskMetrics, CAViaR, historical simulation, and classical filtered historical simulation methods. We show empirically that robust estimation reduces tail estimation risk, providing more accurate and more stable VaR prediction intervals over time.

  • Files
  • Details
  • Metrics
Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Name

robVAR_JFEC2011.pdf

Access type

openaccess

Size

302.05 KB

Format

Adobe PDF

Checksum (MD5)

7d80245bb71281c2dbe64e1baded063c

Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne
  • Contact
  • infoscience@epfl.ch

  • Follow us on Facebook
  • Follow us on Instagram
  • Follow us on LinkedIn
  • Follow us on X
  • Follow us on Youtube
AccessibilityLegal noticePrivacy policyCookie settingsEnd User AgreementGet helpFeedback

Infoscience is a service managed and provided by the Library and IT Services of EPFL. © EPFL, tous droits réservés