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research article
Exploring the Nature of "Trader Intuition"
2010
Experimental evidence has consistently confirmed the ability of uninformed traders, even novices, to infer information from the trading process. After contrasting brain activation in subjects watching markets with and without insiders, we hypothesize that Theory of Mind (ToM) helps explain this pattern, where ToM refers to the human capacity to discern malicious or benevolent intent. We find that skill in predicting price changes in markets with insiders correlates with scores on two ToM tests. We document GARCH-like persistence in transaction price changes that may help investors read markets when there are insiders.
Type
research article
Web of Science ID
WOS:000282182900003
Authors
Publication date
2010
Published in
Volume
65
Start page
1703
End page
1723
Peer reviewed
REVIEWED
Written at
EPFL
EPFL units
Available on Infoscience
December 16, 2011
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