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research article

The effect of opinion clustering on disease outbreaks

Salathé, Marcel  
•
Bonhoeffer, Sebastian
2008
Journal of the Royal Society Interface

Many high-income countries currently experience large outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases such as measles despite the availability of highly effective vaccines. This phenomenon lacks an explanation in countries where vaccination rates are rising on an already high level. Here, we build on the growing evidence that belief systems, rather than access to vaccines, are the primary barrier to vaccination in high-income countries, and show how a simple opinion formation process can lead to clusters of unvaccinated individuals, leading to a dramatic increase in disease outbreak probability. In particular, the effect of clustering on outbreak probabilities is strongest when the vaccination coverage is close to the level required to provide herd immunity under the assumption of random mixing. Our results based on computer simulations suggest that the current estimates of vaccination coverage necessary to avoid outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases might be too low.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1098/rsif.2008.0271
Author(s)
Salathé, Marcel  
Bonhoeffer, Sebastian
Date Issued

2008

Published in
Journal of the Royal Society Interface
Volume

5

Issue

29

Start page

1505

End page

8

Subjects

Culture

•

Models

•

Theoretical

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

OTHER

EPFL units
UPSALATHE1  
Available on Infoscience
December 10, 2015
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/121623
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