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research article

A multi-model analysis of the EU’s path to net zero

Boitier, Baptiste
•
Nikas, Alexandros
•
Gambhir, Ajay
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2023
Joule

The European Union (EU) recently ratcheted its climate ambition to net-zero emissions by 2050, with a milestone of 55% emissions cuts in 2030. This study carries out a model inter-comparison to assess the EU’s path, from “Fit for 55” in 2030 to an intermediate milestone in 2040 and onto net zero in 2050, offering insights at sectoral and member-state levels. Our model results support the bloc’s ambition for its Emissions Trading System and Effort Sharing Regulation sectors while pointing to the need for near-complete decarbonization of electricity by 2040, enabled by considerable deployment of renewables (45%–65% in 2030, to 60%–70% in 2040, and to 75%–90% in 2050 in electricity generation) and carbon capture and storage (0.5–2 GtCO2/year by 2050). We also highlight the trade-offs between supply-side and harder-to-abate sectors, assess the ambition of member states for net zero and timing of coal phaseout, and reflect on the economic implications of investment, technical, and policy needs.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1016/j.joule.2023.11.002
Author(s)
Boitier, Baptiste
Nikas, Alexandros
Gambhir, Ajay
Koasidis, Konstantinos
Elia, Alessia
Al-Dabbas, Khaled
Alibaş, Şirin
Campagnolo, Lorenza
Chiodi, Alessandro
Delpiazzo, Elisa
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Date Issued

2023

Published in
Joule
Subjects

modeling

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climate mitigation pathways

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net-zero emissions

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European climate policy

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climate and energy transition

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Fit for 55

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European Union

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integrated assessment models

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model inter-comparison

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Emissions Trading System

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
LEURE  
Available on Infoscience
November 23, 2023
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/202374
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