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research article

A digital reconstruction of the 1630–1631 large plague outbreak in Venice

Lazzari, Gianrocco  
•
Colavizza, Giovanni  
•
Bortoluzzi, Fabio
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October 20, 2020
Scientific Reports

The plague, an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is widely considered to be responsible for the most devastating and deadly pandemics in human history. Starting with the infamous Black Death, plague outbreaks are estimated to have killed around 100 million people over multiple centuries, with local mortality rates as high as 60%. However, detailed pictures of the disease dynamics of these outbreaks centuries ago remain scarce, mainly due to the lack of high-quality historical data in digital form. Here, we present an analysis of the 1630–1631 plague outbreak in the city of Venice, using newly collected daily death records. We identify the presence of a two-peak pattern, for which we present two possible explanations based on computational models of disease dynamics. Systematically digitized historical records like the ones presented here promise to enrich our understanding of historical phenomena of enduring importance. This work contributes to the recently renewed interdisciplinary foray into the epidemiological and societal impact of pre-modern epidemics.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1038/s41598-020-74775-6
Author(s)
Lazzari, Gianrocco  
Colavizza, Giovanni  
Bortoluzzi, Fabio
Drago, Davide
Erboso, Andrea
Zugno, Francesca
Kaplan, Frédéric  
Salathé, Marcel  
Date Issued

2020-10-20

Publisher

Nature Research

Published in
Scientific Reports
Volume

10

Issue

1

Article Number

17849

Note

This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

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Available on Infoscience
October 27, 2020
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/172805
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