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research article

Robust Identification of Controlled Hawkes Processes

Mark, Michael  
•
Weber, Thomas A.  
April 20, 2020
Physical Review E

The identification of Hawkes-like processes can pose significant challenges. Despite substantial amounts of data, standard estimation methods show significant bias or fail to converge. To overcome these issues, we propose an alternative approach based on an expectation-maximization algorithm, which instrumentalizes the internal branching structure of the process, thus improving convergence behavior. Furthermore, we show that our method provides a tight lower bound for maximum-likelihood estimates. The approach is discussed in the context of a practical application, namely the collection of outstanding unsecured consumer debt.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1103/PhysRevE.101.043305
Web of Science ID

WOS:000526795000007

Author(s)
Mark, Michael  
Weber, Thomas A.  
Date Issued

2020-04-20

Published in
Physical Review E
Volume

101

Issue

4

Article Number

043305

Subjects

Physics, Fluids & Plasmas

•

Physics, Mathematical

•

Physics

•

controlled self-exciting point processes

•

expectation maximization

•

Hawkes processes

•

maximum-likelihood estimation

•

robust identification

Note

Published by the American Physical Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license.

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
OES  
Available on Infoscience
May 2, 2020
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/168518
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