Robust Identification of Controlled Hawkes Processes
The identification of Hawkes-like processes can pose significant challenges. Despite substantial amounts of data, standard estimation methods show significant bias or fail to converge. To overcome these issues, we propose an alternative approach based on an expectation-maximization algorithm, which instrumentalizes the internal branching structure of the process, thus improving convergence behavior. Furthermore, we show that our method provides a tight lower bound for maximum-likelihood estimates. The approach is discussed in the context of a practical application, namely the collection of outstanding unsecured consumer debt.
WOS:000526795000007
2020-04-20
101
4
043305
Published by the American Physical Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license.
REVIEWED
EPFL