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research article

Explainable modeling for wind power forecasting: A Glass-Box model with high accuracy

Liao, Wenlong  
•
Fang, Jiannong  
•
Bak-Jensen, Birgitte
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June 1, 2025
International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems

Machine learning models (e.g., neural networks) achieve high accuracy in wind power forecasting, but they are usually regarded as black boxes that lack interpretability. To address this issue, the paper proposes a glass-box model that combines high accuracy with transparency for wind power forecasting. Specifically, the core is to sum up the feature effects by constructing shape functions, which effectively map the intricate non-linear relationships between wind power output and input features. Furthermore, the forecasting model is enriched by incorporating interaction terms that adeptly capture interdependencies and synergies among the input features. The additive nature of the proposed glass-box model ensures its interpretability. Simulation results show that the proposed glass-box model effectively interprets the results of wind power forecasting from both global and instance perspectives. Besides, it outperforms most benchmark models and exhibits comparable performance to the best-performing neural networks. This dual strength of transparency and high accuracy positions the proposed glass-box model as a compelling choice for reliable wind power forecasting.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1016/j.ijepes.2025.110643
Scopus ID

2-s2.0-105001153801

Author(s)
Liao, Wenlong  

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne

Fang, Jiannong  

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne

Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

Aalborg University

Ruan, Guangchun

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Yang, Zhe

Imperial College London

Porté-Agel, Fernando  

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne

Date Issued

2025-06-01

Published in
International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems
Volume

167

Article Number

110643

Subjects

Decision tree

•

Explainable artificial intelligence

•

Machine learning

•

Time series

•

Wind power forecast

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
WIRE  
FunderFunding(s)Grant NumberGrant URL

Strategic Area Energy, Climate and Sustainable Environment

Swiss Federal Office of Energy

SI/502135–01

Available on Infoscience
April 7, 2025
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/248719
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