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research article

Overcapacity in European power systems: Analysis and robust optimization approach

Moret, Stefano  
•
Babonneau, Frederic
•
Bierlaire, Michel  
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February 1, 2020
Applied Energy

The planning of national power systems is traditionally based on long-term forecasts of electricity demand and fuel prices. However, over such long time horizons (20-50 years), these forecasts often prove to be inaccurate. As an example, wrong projections of low natural gas prices and high electricity demand in Europe in the early 2000s stimulated massive investments in electricity generation, which led to the current situation of overcapacity in the European electricity market. In this work, we first present the issue of overcapacity in Europe and discuss its causes; in particular, we highlight the relationship between overcapacity and errors in forecasts of electricity demand and fuel prices. Then, we apply a novel robust optimization framework to a real-world strategic energy planning problem, and compare it to the standard, deterministic decision-making approach. The results show that the robust investment strategies are up to 58% less likely to require future modifications leading to overcapacity. Overall, this suggests that considering uncertainties in the long-term planning process can reduce the risk of generating overcapacity in national power systems.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.113970
Web of Science ID

WOS:000506575800070

Author(s)
Moret, Stefano  
Babonneau, Frederic
Bierlaire, Michel  
Marechal, Francois  
Date Issued

2020-02-01

Publisher

ELSEVIER SCI LTD

Published in
Applied Energy
Volume

259

Article Number

113970

Subjects

Energy & Fuels

•

Engineering, Chemical

•

Engineering

•

strategic energy planning

•

power systems

•

electricity generation

•

uncertainty

•

overcapacity

•

robust optimization

•

wind power

•

energy

•

generation

•

investment

•

storage

•

china

•

dispatch

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
SCI-STI-FM  
TRANSP-OR  
Available on Infoscience
March 3, 2020
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/166678
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