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  4. Neural Counterfactual Reasoning for Interacting Systems: Bridging Physics-Informed Learning and Reasoning for PHM
 
conference paper

Neural Counterfactual Reasoning for Interacting Systems: Bridging Physics-Informed Learning and Reasoning for PHM

Wei, Amaury  
•
Fink, Olga  
Kulkarni, Chetan S.
•
Orchard, Marcos E.
2025
Proceedings of the Annual Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society, PHM
17th Annual Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society

Over the past decade, advances in sensing and information technologies have enabled industries to collect large amounts of data. Yet, decision-making often remains driven by the intuition of domain experts who rely on simplistic analyses and short-term considerations. This frequently leads to suboptimal decisions that fail to account for long-term effects, particularly in complex, interconnected systems. Current data-driven strategies typically focus on immediate objectives, overlooking relational structures and longer-term impacts. There is a growing need for more transparent, generalizable models that can simulate system behavior, reason about alternative future scenarios, and extrapolate to unseen conditions—capabilities that are essential for decision-making in Prognostics and Health Management (PHM). This research aims to advance reasoning and decision support in PHM through three novel contributions: (1) a physics-informed surrogate model for simulating rigid body interactions, enabling the exploration of”what-if” scenarios, (2) an object-centric visual reasoning model for dynamics prediction in sensor-limited environments, supporting visual inspection tasks, and (3) a neuro-symbolic framework for interpretable root-cause analysis in time series, improving diagnostic transparency and providing actionable insights.

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Type
conference paper
DOI
10.36001/phmconf.2025.v17i1.4590
Scopus ID

2-s2.0-105021951812

Author(s)
Wei, Amaury  

EPFL

Fink, Olga  

EPFL

Editors
Kulkarni, Chetan S.
•
Orchard, Marcos E.
Date Issued

2025

Publisher

Prognostics and Health Management Society

Published in
Proceedings of the Annual Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society, PHM
ISBN of the book

9781936263295

Book part number

17

Series title/Series vol.

Annual Conference of the PHM Society; 17

ISSN (of the series)

2325-0178

Subjects

Counterfactual

•

Physics-informed

•

Reasoning

•

Surrogate

•

Symbolic

•

Vision

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
IMOS  
Event nameEvent acronymEvent placeEvent date
17th Annual Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society

Bellevue, United States

2025-10-25 - 2025-10-30

FunderFunding(s)Grant NumberGrant URL

Swiss National Science Foundation

Operational digital twins of complex industrial systems based on physics-informed deep learning with integrated structural inductive bias, physics and domain expertise

200021 200461

https://data.snf.ch/grants/grant/200461
Available on Infoscience
January 20, 2026
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/258269
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