Repository logo

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
  1. Home
  2. Academic and Research Output
  3. Journal articles
  4. A hybrid physics-based and data-driven model for intra-day and day-ahead wind power forecasting considering a drastically expanded predictor search space
 
research article

A hybrid physics-based and data-driven model for intra-day and day-ahead wind power forecasting considering a drastically expanded predictor search space

Kirchner-Bossi, Nicolas  
•
Kathari, Gabriel  
•
Porte-Agel, Fernando  
August 1, 2024
Applied Energy

This work presents a novel hybrid (physics- and data -driven) model for short-term (intra-day and day-ahead, 3h -24h) wind power forecasting (STWPF). Traditionally, STWPF predictors admitted very few meteorological variables only from the grid points closest to the turbines. Here, with the aim to further capture the underlying atmospheric processes ruling the wind variability in the wind farm, the approach relies on drastically expanding the predictor space, composed of numerous meteorological variables throughout a large geographical domain, retrieved from a weather forecasting model (COSMO-1). An ad -hoc genetic algorithm that optimizes the selection of predictors is designed and combined with feed-forward artificial neural networks for its cost function evaluation. The introduced model is compared to multiple benchmark models in a 16-turbine wind farm in the Swiss Jura mountains. For +12h and +24h lead times, the new approach shows a root-mean squared error normalized to the installed wind farm capacity of 11% and 11.6%, respectively. These values entail similar to 16% higher forecasting skill compared to state -of -the -art predictor frameworks. Results highlight the ability of the presented approach to systematically select as predictors different variables with a well-known impact on the wind farm performance, such as the turbulent kinetic energy or the vertical wind shear. Clustering the data according to the wind direction provides substantial benefit. In addition, it provides a better understanding of the attained improvement: largest performances occur in those wind directions affected by highly complex terrain. This indicates that the proposed model can be especially suitable for wind farms in complex terrain.

  • Details
  • Metrics
Type
research article
DOI
10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123375
Web of Science ID

WOS:001242223400001

Author(s)
Kirchner-Bossi, Nicolas  
Kathari, Gabriel  
Porte-Agel, Fernando  
Date Issued

2024-08-01

Publisher

Elsevier Sci Ltd

Published in
Applied Energy
Volume

367

Article Number

123375

Subjects

Technology

•

Wind Power Forecasting

•

Day-Ahead Forecasting

•

Genetic Algorithms

•

Machine Learning

•

Numerical Weather Prediction

•

Turbulence Intensity

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
WIRE  
FunderGrant Number

ETH-Domain Joint Initiative program in the Strategic Area Energy, Climate and Sustainable Environment

Swiss Federal Office of Energy

SI / 502135-01

Available on Infoscience
June 19, 2024
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/208779
Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne
  • Contact
  • infoscience@epfl.ch

  • Follow us on Facebook
  • Follow us on Instagram
  • Follow us on LinkedIn
  • Follow us on X
  • Follow us on Youtube
AccessibilityLegal noticePrivacy policyCookie settingsEnd User AgreementGet helpFeedback

Infoscience is a service managed and provided by the Library and IT Services of EPFL. © EPFL, tous droits réservés