Repository logo

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
  1. Home
  2. Academic and Research Output
  3. Journal articles
  4. Space-Time Extremes of Severe U.S. Thunderstorm Environments
 
research article

Space-Time Extremes of Severe U.S. Thunderstorm Environments

Koh, Jonathan
•
Koch, Erwan
•
Davison, Anthony C.  
2024
Journal of the American Statistical Association

Severe thunderstorms cause substantial economic and human losses in the United States. Simultaneous high values of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and storm relative helicity (SRH) are favorable to severe weather, and both they and the composite variable (Formula presented.) can be used as indicators of severe thunderstorm activity. Their extremal spatial dependence exhibits temporal non-stationarity due to seasonality and large-scale atmospheric signals such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In order to investigate this, we introduce a space-time model based on a max-stable, Brown–Resnick, field whose range depends on ENSO and on time through a tensor product spline. We also propose a max-stability test based on empirical likelihood and the bootstrap. The marginal and dependence parameters must be estimated separately owing to the complexity of the model, and we develop a bootstrap-based model selection criterion that accounts for the marginal uncertainty when choosing the dependence model. In the case study, the out-sample performance of our model is good. We find that extremes of PROD, CAPE, and SRH are generally more localized in summer and, in some regions, less localized during El Niño and La Niña events, and give meteorological interpretations of these phenomena. Supplementary materials for this article are available online, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work.

  • Details
  • Metrics
Type
research article
DOI
10.1080/01621459.2024.2421582
Scopus ID

2-s2.0-85211814710

Author(s)
Koh, Jonathan
•
Koch, Erwan
•
Davison, Anthony C.  
Date Issued

2024

Published in
Journal of the American Statistical Association
Subjects

Bootstrap

•

Brown–Resnick random field

•

El Niño-Southern Oscillation

•

Model selection

•

Nonstationary extremal dependence

•

Severe thunderstorm environment

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
STAT  
Available on Infoscience
January 25, 2025
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/244471
Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne
  • Contact
  • infoscience@epfl.ch

  • Follow us on Facebook
  • Follow us on Instagram
  • Follow us on LinkedIn
  • Follow us on X
  • Follow us on Youtube
AccessibilityLegal noticePrivacy policyCookie settingsEnd User AgreementGet helpFeedback

Infoscience is a service managed and provided by the Library and IT Services of EPFL. © EPFL, tous droits réservés