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research article

Stochastic pairwise preference convergence in Bayesian agents

Hongler, M.  
2024
Physical Review E

Beliefs inform the behaviour of forward-thinking agents in complex environments. Recently, sequential Bayesian inference has emerged as a mechanism to study belief formation among agents adapting to dynamical conditions. However, we lack critical theory to explain how preferences evolve in cases of simple agent interactions. In this paper, we derive a Gaussian, pairwise agent interaction model to study how preferences converge when driven by observation of each other's behaviours. We show that the dynamics of convergence resemble an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, a common model in nonequilibrium stochastic dynamics. Using standard analytical and computational techniques, we find that the hyperprior magnitudes, representing the learning time, determine the convergence value and the asymptotic entropy of the preferences across pairs of agents. We also show that the dynamical variance in preferences is characterised by a relaxation time t∗ and compute its asymptotic upper bound. This formulation enhances the existing toolkit for modeling stochastic, interactive agents by formalising leading theories in learning theory, and builds towards more comprehensive models of open problems in principal-agent and market theory.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1103/PhysRevE.109.054106
Author(s)
Hongler, M.  
Corporate authors
Kemp, J.
•
Gallay, O.
Date Issued

2024

Published in
Physical Review E
Volume

109

Issue

5

Article Number

054106

Subjects

Bayesian networks; Computation theory; Inference engines; Stochastic models

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
IBI-STI  
Available on Infoscience
May 16, 2024
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/207896
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