Repository logo

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne

Infoscience

  • English
  • French
Log In
  1. Home
  2. Academic and Research Output
  3. Journal articles
  4. Estimation of Self-Exciting Point Processes from Time-Censored Data
 
research article

Estimation of Self-Exciting Point Processes from Time-Censored Data

Schneider, Philipp  
•
Weber, T. A.  
2023
Physical Review E

Self-exciting point processes, widely used to model arrival phenomena in nature and society, are often difficult to identify. The estimation becomes even more challenging when arrivals are recorded only as bin counts on a finite partition of the observation interval. In this paper, we propose the recursive identification with sample correction (RISC) algorithm for the estimation of process parameters from time-censored data. In every iteration, a synthetic sample path is generated and corrected to match the observed bin counts. Then the process parameters update and a unique iteration is performed to successively approximate the stochastic characteristics of the observed process. In terms of finite-sample approximation error, the proposed RISC framework performs favorably over extant methods, as well as compared to a naïve locally uniform sample redistribution. The results of an extensive numerical experiment indicate that the reconstruction of an intrabin history based on the conditional intensity of the process is crucial for attaining superior performance in terms of estimation error.

  • Files
  • Details
  • Metrics
Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Name

Schneider-Weber-PRE-2023.pdf

Type

Preprint

Version

Submitted version (Preprint)

Access type

openaccess

License Condition

CC BY

Size

6.28 MB

Format

Adobe PDF

Checksum (MD5)

2790f12a67f8ba191e0c440b5ce43be9

Logo EPFL, École polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne
  • Contact
  • infoscience@epfl.ch

  • Follow us on Facebook
  • Follow us on Instagram
  • Follow us on LinkedIn
  • Follow us on X
  • Follow us on Youtube
AccessibilityLegal noticePrivacy policyCookie settingsEnd User AgreementGet helpFeedback

Infoscience is a service managed and provided by the Library and IT Services of EPFL. © EPFL, tous droits réservés