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research article

Carving the transformation pathways to sustainable futures: A novel analytical framework for backcasting in sustainability transitions

Duygan, Mert
•
Binder, Claudia R.  
•
Meylan, Grégoire
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June 1, 2025
Sustainable Futures

Despite the increasing number of climate and sustainability pledges, knowledge of how to reach those targets within a given system – systems and transformation knowledge – is often lacking. Backcasting can be highly relevant for tackling this transformation gap as it starts from future targets and works backwards to uncover how they can be achieved. However, most backcasting applications tend to lack formal tools and assessments, raising concerns over their rigor and traceability. This paper addresses these limitations and presents a novel analytical framework to tackle the what-who-how questions crucial for backcasting. The analytical framework presents a toolkit combining various approaches such as cross-impact balance analysis, actor analysis, network analysis, and stakeholder workshops to generate systems and transformation knowledge. The framework enables the generation of transformation pathways to desirable futures in different cases. Paper recycling serves as an illustrative case study to demonstrate its empirical application. The framework contributes to strengthening of the analytical dimension of backcasting by adding rigor and traceability to the generation of scenarios and assessment of their socio-political feasibility. By providing a novel approach to generate transformation knowledge in formalised, systematic and participatory way, we aim to contribute to closing the transformation gap in science and practice.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1016/j.sftr.2025.100553
Scopus ID

2-s2.0-105001522760

Author(s)
Duygan, Mert

University of Bern

Binder, Claudia R.  

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne

Meylan, Grégoire

Fachhochschule Nordwestschweiz FHNW

Fischer, Manuel

Eawag - Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology

Date Issued

2025-06-01

Published in
Sustainable Futures
Volume

9

Article Number

100553

Subjects

Actor analysis

•

Backcasting

•

Cross-impact balance analysis

•

Scenarios

•

Sustainability transitions

•

Transition pathways

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
HERUS  
FunderFunding(s)Grant NumberGrant URL

Swiss National Science Foundation

Available on Infoscience
April 7, 2025
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/248796
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