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research article

Space Oddity? A Statistical Formulation of Conjunction Assessment

Elkantassi, Soumaya  
•
Davison, Anthony C.  
October 17, 2022
Journal Of Guidance Control And Dynamics

Satellite conjunctions involving "near misses" of space objects are becoming increasingly likely. One approach to risk analysis for them involves the computation of the collision probability, but this has been regarded as having some counterintuitive properties and its interpretation has been debated. This paper formulates an approach to satellite conjunction based on a simple statistical model and discusses inference on the miss distance between the two objects, both when the relative velocity can be taken as known and when its uncertainty must be taken into account. It is pointed out that the usual collision probability estimate can be badly biased, but that highly accurate inference on the miss distance is possible. The ideas are illustrated with case studies and Monte Carlo results that show its excellent performance.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.2514/1.G006282
Web of Science ID

WOS:000875763700001

Author(s)
Elkantassi, Soumaya  
Davison, Anthony C.  
Date Issued

2022-10-17

Publisher

AMER INST AERONAUTICS ASTRONAUTICS

Published in
Journal Of Guidance Control And Dynamics
Subjects

Engineering, Aerospace

•

Instruments & Instrumentation

•

Engineering

•

collision probability

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
STAT  
Available on Infoscience
November 21, 2022
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/192348
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