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  4. Model Tuning and Performance Evaluation in Machine Learning Models for PV Power Forecasting: Case Study of a BIPV System in Switzerland
 
conference paper

Model Tuning and Performance Evaluation in Machine Learning Models for PV Power Forecasting: Case Study of a BIPV System in Switzerland

Shirazi, Elham
•
Quest, Hugo  
2024
Conference Record of the IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference
52 IEEE Photovoltaic Specialist Conference

High PV penetration into the electricity grid can lead to issues such as congestion if PV systems are not integrated effectively. Accurate PV power forecasting helps to address this issue. In recent years machine learning approaches have gotten a lot of attention in PV power forecasting due to their ability to extract complex relationships between different variables. Hyperparameters are a vital part of machine learning models, influencing their structure, learning process and accuracy of the forecast. Choosing the right hyperparameters is often one of the key challenges in developing effective machine learning models and therefore accurate PV power forecasts. These hyper-parameters can be optimized through various methods including grid search and random search. In this study, two machine learning models including KNN and SVR are used to forecast the power of a BIPV system installed in Switzerland, using 6 years of measurements. Then the grid search has been applied to these models for hyperparameters optimization. Afterwards, the performances of the models are evaluated using K-Fold cross-validation. The results of this study show that choosing the right hyperparameters leads to a more accurate forecast, as they influence the structure, learning process and performance of the model.

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Type
conference paper
DOI
10.1109/PVSC57443.2024.10748823
Scopus ID

2-s2.0-85211578723

Author(s)
Shirazi, Elham

Universiteit Twente

Quest, Hugo  

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne

Date Issued

2024

Publisher

Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.

Published in
Conference Record of the IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference
ISBN of the book

9781665464260

Start page

438

End page

442

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
PV-LAB  
Event nameEvent acronymEvent placeEvent date
52 IEEE Photovoltaic Specialist Conference

Seattle, United States

2024-06-09 - 2024-06-14

FunderFunding(s)Grant NumberGrant URL

COST

CA16235

Available on Infoscience
January 26, 2025
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/245122
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