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conference paper

Short-Term Solar Power Forecasting with Large Language Model

Liao, Wenlong  
•
Yang, Yue  
•
Yang, Zhe
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June 29, 2025
2025 IEEE Kiel PowerTech
2025 IEEE Kiel PowerTech

Most of neural networks require massive data for model training, which limits their forecast accuracy for short-term solar power forecasting in data-scarce scenarios. To address this limitation, this paper aims to apply the large language models (LLMs), specifically Chronos model, to short-term solar power forecasting in data-scarce scenarios. In particular, a framework is introduced to convert continuous time-series data in solar power forecasting into the discrete data format required by LLMs. Once pre-trained, LLMs can be directly applied to other datasets for short-term solar power forecasting without the need for further fine-tuning. Simulations on four solar datasets show that the LLM significantly outperforms 7 popular statistical models and 2 state-of-the-art neural networks in both probabilistic and deterministic solar power forecasting, with forecast horizons ranging from 30 minutes to 2 hours. This highlights the superiority of LLMs for short-term solar power forecasting in data-scarce scenarios.

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Type
conference paper
DOI
10.1109/powertech59965.2025.11180347
Author(s)
Liao, Wenlong  

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne

Yang, Yue  

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne

Yang, Zhe
Bak-Jensen, Birgitte
Fang, Jiannong  

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne

Porté-Agel, Fernando  

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne

Date Issued

2025-06-29

Publisher

IEEE

Published in
2025 IEEE Kiel PowerTech
ISBN of the book

979-8-3315-4397-6

Start page

1

End page

6

Subjects

Solar power forecasting

•

renewable energy

•

machine learning

•

large language model

•

smart grid

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
WIRE  
UPCOURTINE  
Event nameEvent acronymEvent placeEvent date
2025 IEEE Kiel PowerTech

Kiel, Germany

2025-06-29 - 2025-07-03

FunderFunding(s)Grant NumberGrant URL

Office of Energy

Available on Infoscience
October 10, 2025
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/254836
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