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Model optimisation, hyperparameter tuning and performance evaluation in machine learning models for solar PV generation forecast

Quest, Hugo James André  
•
Ballif, Christophe  
•
Shirazi, Elham  
December 31, 2025
AI-Based Forecasting of Solar Photovoltaics Power Generation

Forecasting solar energy is essential for efficient integration of photovoltaics (PV) into electricity grids and optimally managing renewable energy resources. As PV becomes an increasingly significant component of the energy landscape, accurate predictions of its availability and output are required for efficient integration into energy systems and ensuring a steady supply of electricity. Artificial intelligence (AI)-based PV forecasts are particularly valuable due to their ability to accurately predict PV generation by extracting complex relationships between different variables. However, their performance is heavily influenced by the selection of hyperparameters, such as learning rate, network architecture, and regularisation terms, which significantly affect the model's structure, learning efficiency, and forecasting accuracy. This chapter focuses on the importance of model tuning in AI-driven PV forecasting and explains how selecting the right hyperparameters can enhance forecast accuracy and support more reliable solar energy integration.

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Type
book part or chapter
DOI
10.1049/pbpo268e_ch8
Author(s)
Quest, Hugo James André  

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne

Ballif, Christophe  

EPFL

Shirazi, Elham  

University of Twente

Date Issued

2025-12-31

Publisher

The Institution of Engineering and Technology

Publisher place

United Kingdom

Published in
AI-Based Forecasting of Solar Photovoltaics Power Generation
DOI of the book
10.1049/PBPO268E
ISBN of the book

9781837240197

9781837240203

Start page

177

End page

214

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
PV-LAB  
Available on Infoscience
January 15, 2026
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/258027
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