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  4. Short-term energy use prediction of solar-assisted water heating system: Application case of combined attention-based LSTM and time-series decomposition
 
research article

Short-term energy use prediction of solar-assisted water heating system: Application case of combined attention-based LSTM and time-series decomposition

Heidari, Amirreza  
•
Khovalyg, Dolaana  
September 1, 2020
Solar Energy

With improved insulation of building envelopes and the use of low-temperature space heating systems, the share of energy use for domestic hot water (DHW) production in buildings has increased significantly, and nearly become the most energy-expensive service in modern buildings. Early prediction of the energy use for DHW is required for many advanced applications such as smart control, demand-side management, and optimal operation of electric or heat storage. However, predicting energy use of the solar-assisted water heating system is more challenging than typical DHW systems, as it is strongly affected by two stochastic phenomena, demand pattern and solar radiation. Given the increasing use of solar-assisted water heating systems, this paper aims to evaluate the potential to predict energy use in such systems using a novel machine learning approach. In this novel model, a Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural network is enhanced by (1) implementing the attention mechanism, a recent development in deep learning inspired by human vision to pay selective attention to the input data, and (2) decomposition of input data into sub-layers. The performance of simple LSTM neural network, Attention-based LSTM neural network (ALSTM) and Attention-based LSTM using decomposed data (ALSTM-D) are compared to a Feed-Forward neural network as a baseline model. Results show that LSTM, ALSTM and ALSTM-D models have a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 25%, 28% and 41% lower than Feed-Forward model, respectively. These results indicate the superior performance of the proposed ALSTM-D model over conventional models for solar-assisted DHW systems.

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Type
research article
DOI
10.1016/j.solener.2020.07.008
Web of Science ID

WOS:000575900400001

Author(s)
Heidari, Amirreza  
Khovalyg, Dolaana  
Date Issued

2020-09-01

Published in
Solar Energy
Volume

207

Start page

626

End page

639

Subjects

Energy & Fuels

•

solar water heating

•

energy use forecast

•

machine learning

•

attention mechanism

•

lstm neural network

•

time series decomposition

•

artificial neural-networks

•

residential buildings

•

hot

•

generation

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

EPFL

EPFL units
ICE  
Available on Infoscience
October 22, 2020
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/172665
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