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  4. Global climate response to anthropogenic aerosol indirect effects: Present day and year 2100
 
research article

Global climate response to anthropogenic aerosol indirect effects: Present day and year 2100

Chen, W.-T.
•
Nenes, Athanasios  
•
Liao, H.
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2010
Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres

Aerosol indirect effects (AIE) are a principal source of uncertainty in future climate predictions. The present study investigates the equilibrium response of the climate system to present-day and future AIE using the general circulation model (GCM), Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) III. A diagnostic formulation correlating cloud droplet number concentration (N c) with concentrations of aerosol soluble ions is developed as a basis for the calculation. Explicit dependence on Nc is introduced in the treatments of liquid-phase stratiform clouds in GISS III. The model is able to reproduce the general patterns of present-day cloud frequency, droplet size, and radiative balance observed by CloudSat, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, and Earth Radiation Budget Experiment. For perturbations of Nc from preindustrial to present day, a net AIE forcing of-1.67 W m-2 is estimated, with a global mean surface cooling of 1.12 K, precipitation reduction of 3.36%, a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and a hydrological sensitivity of +3.00% K-1. For estimated perturbations of Nc from present day to year 2100, a net AIE forcing of-0.58 W m-2, a surface cooling of 0.47 K, and a decrease in precipitation of 1.7% are predicted. Sensitivity calculations show that the assumption of a background minimum Nc value has more significant effects on AIE forcing in the future than on that in present day. When AIE-related processes are included in the GCM, a decrease in stratiform precipitation is predicted over future greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced warming scenario, as opposed to the predicted increase when only GHG and aerosol direct effects are considered. Copyright 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.

  • Details
  • Metrics
Type
research article
DOI
10.1029/2008JD011619
Author(s)
Chen, W.-T.
Nenes, Athanasios  
Liao, H.
Adams, P. J.
Li, J.-L. F.
Seinfeld, J. H.
Date Issued

2010

Publisher

Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Published in
Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
Volume

115

D12

Article Number

D12207

Subjects

Atmospheric aerosols

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Climatology

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Clouds

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Drop formation

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Global warming

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Greenhouse gases

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Radiometers

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Aerosol indirect effect

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Anthropogenic aerosols

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Climate system

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Cloud droplet number

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CloudSat

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Droplet sizes

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Earth radiation budget experiments

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Future climate

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General circulation model

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General patterns

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Global climates

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Intertropical convergence zone

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Liquid Phase

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Moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer

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Pre-industrial

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Radiative balance

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Soluble ions

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Stratiform clouds

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Stratiform precipitation

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Surface cooling

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Climate models

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aerosol

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anthropogenic source

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climate prediction

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cloud droplet

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CloudSat

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droplet

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general circulation model

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global climate

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global warming

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greenhouse gas

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intertropical convergence zone

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perturbation

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radiative forcing

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remote sensing

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stratiform cloud

Editorial or Peer reviewed

REVIEWED

Written at

OTHER

EPFL units
LAPI  
Available on Infoscience
October 15, 2018
Use this identifier to reference this record
https://infoscience.epfl.ch/handle/20.500.14299/149027
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